The liberal-progressive D66 party of the Netherlands appears poised to become the largest party in the Dutch parliament, according to exit polls, prior to the announcement of snap general election results. The exit polls also indicated that Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party is expected to lose approximately one-third of its seats.
The exit poll, which carries a margin of error of one to two seats, suggested that the centrist party would secure around 27 MPs in the 150-seat assembly. This outcome potentially paves the way for its 38-year-old leader, Rob Jetten, to become the youngest and openly gay Prime Minister in the country’s history.
If this result materializes, it would signify a historic resurgence for the nearly 60-year-old party, which only secured nine seats in the previous election held in 2023. Additionally, it would represent a significant setback for Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), which is projected to decline from 37 MPs to 25, as reported by The Guardian.
The polls also illustrate a shift in voter sentiment towards the left following two years of a contentious and ineffective four-party PVV-led conservative coalition government that was characterized by internal conflicts and minimal achievements. “Today, we have achieved D66’s best result,” Jetten expressed to enthusiastic supporters at the party’s election event in Leiden. “Millions of Dutch citizens have turned a page. They have bid farewell to the politics of negativity, hatred, and the notion that ‘it can’t be done.’
“Let us also turn the page on Wilders and strive for a bright future for our beautiful country … in the years ahead, we will do everything possible to demonstrate to all Dutch citizens … that politics and the government can once again serve them,” he further stated.
Wilders faces a significant setback
Even if the final results place the Freedom Party in the lead, Wilders’ brief tenure in power following the PVV’s unexpected victory in 2023 appears to be coming to an end for the time being. Prior to the snap elections, all mainstream Dutch parties had already dismissed the possibility of forming a coalition with his party. The election in this European nation was prompted by Wilders withdrawing the PVV from the government in June, less than
Wilders’ party found itself marginalized after coalition partners declined to support his extreme anti-refugee proposals, which were largely regarded as either impractical, illegal, or both. The populist leader quickly recognized that his party was unlikely to be part of the new government.
Nevertheless, he asserted that his choice to resign was warranted. “The electorate has made its decision. We had anticipated a different result, but we remained steadfast in our beliefs,” he shared on social media. It is important to highlight that under the proportional representation system in the Netherlands, 0.67 percent of the votes translates to one Member of Parliament, a threshold that was surpassed by 15 of the 27 parties participating in the election, which included parties representing the over-50s, youth, animals, universal basic income, and sports.
This division implies that no single party ever secures a majority, and the nation has been led by coalitions – consisting, in its three most recent administrations, of four parties – for over a century. Therefore, the forthcoming government is anticipated to follow the same pattern.
Looking forward
In the meantime, the centre-left GreenLeft/Labour alliance (GL/PvdA) experienced a disappointing evening, finishing in third place with 20 seats – five less than in the previous parliament and below what polls had forecasted – leading party leader Frans Timmermans to resign.
The former Vice President of the European Commission stated that he accepted “full responsibility” for the outcome, adding: “It is time for me to step aside and pass the leadership of our movement to the next generation.” With 76 seats required to establish a governing coalition, one potential scenario could involve a broad coalition including D66, CDA, GL/PvdA, and the liberal-conservative VVD – the only party in the outgoing government to increase its seat count, now holding 23. However, this seemed to be a challenging endeavor.
Upon assuming power, the newly established government will need to address a number of urgent challenges, such as escalating healthcare expenses and a lack of available housing. At the same time, experts caution that the Netherlands’ seemingly renewed approach to a more pragmatic style of governance may be fleeting.
