Trump’s oscillation between military threats and a willingness to engage in diplomacy underscores a growing divide within his MAGA campaign.
In what seems to be a shift away from immediate escalation, US President Donald Trump has established a two-week timeframe to determine whether the United States will participate in Israel’s military operations against Iran or seek a diplomatic solution.
Is Trump giving diplomacy a final opportunity?
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt communicated Trump’s message: “Considering the significant possibility of negotiations that may or may not occur with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision regarding participation within the next two weeks.”
This announcement follows Israel’s aggressive strikes on Iran, which commenced on June 13, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and prominent military figures, including senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Ongoing discussions between the US and Iran
Washington and Tehran are involved in both direct and indirect discussions, with the US urging Iran to cease its uranium enrichment activities.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi have engaged in several phone conversations since the onset of Israel’s attacks, representing the most significant direct dialogue since the negotiations in Oman and Italy in April 2025.
According to three diplomats referenced by Reuters, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the matter, Araqchi asserted that Tehran would not resume negotiations unless Israel halted its strikes.
The conversations also addressed an American proposal from May 2025 to create a regional consortium for uranium enrichment outside of Iran, which Tehran has thus far rejected.
A regional diplomat with close ties to Tehran indicated that Araqchi suggested potential “flexibility” on the nuclear matter if Washington could exert pressure on Israel to conclude the conflict.
Europe-Iran negotiations
Simultaneously, Britain, France, and Germany are intensifying diplomatic initiatives to avert further escalation. The three countries are conducting high-level discussions with Iran in Geneva, marking the first in-person diplomatic engagement with Tehran since the commencement of Israel’s attacks.
The meeting occurs in the wake of Trump’s comments regarding the potential for renewed discussions, indicating a unified international effort.
Critical juncture
Trump’s oscillation between military threats and a willingness to engage in diplomacy underscores a growing divide within his MAGA campaign.
The choice entails considerable domestic political risk, as increased US involvement in West Asia could alienate crucial voter demographics, while heightened tensions might enhance his strongman persona.
From a strategic standpoint, the US has augmented its military footprint in the area, with troop levels rising to 40,000 from the typical 30,000, and 27 military refuelling aircraft recently relocated to Europe, implying preparations for possible long-range missions.
