Is an asteroid projected to impact Earth in 2032?
Researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have identified a celestial object that poses a potential threat to our planet.
Although this asteroid is not classified as an ‘Earth killer,’ it has the potential to cause significant damage.
What information do we have regarding this asteroid? What would occur if it were to collide with Earth?
Let us examine the details more closely:
What information is available?
According to The Guardian, the asteroid is designated as Asteroid 2024 YR4.
It was first detected on December 27 in Chile.
As reported by LiveScience, NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System was responsible for its discovery.
The Telegraph notes that the asteroid measures between 40 and 100 meters in diameter.
Currently, it is traveling at a speed of 61,000 kilometers per hour away from Earth.
However, an analysis of its trajectory indicates a 1 in 83 probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
This translates to a 1.3 percent likelihood of a direct collision.
While this may not seem alarming at first glance, The Telegraph highlights that this represents the highest risk of an asteroid collision ever recorded by the European Space Agency (ESA).
According to LiveScience, the asteroid is expected to pass by Earth in late 2028.
It will make an additional six close approaches between 2032 and 2074.
On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from 1 to 10 and assesses the risk posed by near-Earth objects, YR4 is rated a three.
This rating indicates that “attention from the public and officials is warranted if the encounter is less than a decade away,” as stated by LiveScience.
How concerned should we be?
Experts indicate that there is little cause for alarm.
They believe it is likely that the asteroid will simply pass by without incident.
“Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,” stated Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, in an interview with The Guardian. “It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.”
In 2023, a specialist informed The Telegraph that it would be preferable to employ a deflection strategy rather than initiate a nuclear explosion.
“Ian Carnelli, a planetary defense expert at the European Space Agency, stated to The Telegraph that a kinetic impactor, which is a type of spacecraft, offers significantly greater precision compared to a nuclear device. This method allows for careful selection of the mass, velocity, and trajectory of the impact, enabling effective control over the deflection process.”
“Initiating an explosion at a specific distance from an asteroid presents considerable complexities, and there would be no consensus to conduct tests prior to the identification of an actual threat, resulting in a complete lack of understanding regarding the execution of such a strategy.”
“In contrast, the kinetic impactor is a well-established technique, with available technology that is much more manageable. It represents the optimal approach for deflecting an asteroid.”
