The population of the United States is anticipated to decrease over the next three decades, primarily due to falling birth rates and reduced immigration, as reported by Newsweek, referencing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
In its most recent forecast, the CBO has revised its 30-year population projection downward by 11 million, estimating that the US population will reach approximately 372 million by the year 2055.
The CBO’s 2025 report indicates a deceleration in population growth within the country. Over the next 30 years, the annual growth rate is projected to be merely 0.2 percent, significantly lower than the growth rate observed between 1975 and 2024, which was more than four times higher.
A key factor contributing to this slowdown is the declining fertility rate. The average fertility rate in the United States is now expected to be around 1.60 births per woman over the next three decades, which is considerably below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman necessary to maintain a stable population.
For the upcoming decade, the annual growth rate is expected to average 0.4 percent; however, this rate is predicted to drop to 0.1 percent from 2036 to 2055.
The CBO has indicated that without immigration, the US population will begin to decline in 2033, largely because fertility rates are projected to remain insufficient for a generation to replace itself.
The downward revisions from the previous year stem from a decrease in projected fertility rates over the next 30 years, from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman, alongside a reduction in immigration due to an executive order issued last June that temporarily halts asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials determine that they are overwhelmed. The replacement level is established at 2.1 births per woman.
The Congressional Budget Office publishes annual population projections to inform federal budgetary decisions, economic assessments, and to estimate Social Security payroll taxes and benefits.
The projections provided by the Congressional Budget Office exceed those of the US Census Bureau. While the Census Bureau focuses solely on the resident population, the CBO’s estimates encompass not only the resident population but also US citizens and other individuals residing abroad who qualify for certain benefits. Additionally, the CBO anticipates an increase in immigration levels.
