Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te achieved a historic victory for the Democratic Progressive Party earlier this year.
However, it was Lai’s inauguration speech on 20 May that China used as a reason to resume its military coercion. Shortly after being sworn in as the eighth president of Taiwan, Lai declared, “The Republic of China (Taiwan) is a sovereign, independent nation in which sovereignty lies in the hands of the people.”
Just three days after Lai’s inauguration, China carried out a two-day military drill around Taiwan, named Joint Sword-2024A. Chinese state media and officials portrayed the exercise as a form of ‘punishment’ aimed at ‘Taiwan separatists’ (meaning Lai and the DPP), issuing a strong warning against ‘external interference or provocation’ (meaning the US).
Lai’s description of Taiwan as an independent nation was not unprecedented for a Taiwanese president, and his calls for dialogue with China were consistently disregarded. Furthermore, Beijing’s selective response to his speech is solely based on its preconceived ideas about him.
The Chinese government, state-owned media, and analysts are linking the military drill to Lai’s speech, along with aggressive and hostile rhetoric from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Hua Chunying, the ministry’s former spokesperson who has now been promoted to Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, used X (formerly Twitter) to caution others, “Seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ is playing with fire. Those who play with fire will perish by it.” Another ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, criticized Lai and accused him of betraying his country and ancestors. He also stated, “All ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists will see their names inscribed on the wall of shame.”
Many analysts studying cross-Strait relations in China are aligning closely with the government’s position. Victor Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, described Lai’s speech as ‘tantamount to a declaration of war’. Zhang Hua from the Institute of Taiwan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences remarked that “Lai did not try to hide his Taiwan independence stance in his speech.” He characterized it as filled with ‘ignorance, arrogance, hostility, and provocation’, further stating that Taiwan is relying on the US to pursue independence.
Chinese search engines have highlighted articles suggesting that Taiwanese society, reportedly uneasy with Lai’s speech, feared its impact on cross-Strait relations. Chinese State media and several articles by Chinese analysts are actively portraying Lai as a troublemaker, and his speech as unwelcome among the Taiwanese people. These articles, citing mainly pan-blue Taiwanese scholars, aimed to present views representative of the entire Taiwan. One report, based on a few commentators, asserted that “Lai’s ‘provocative speech’ and assertive approach towards mainland China are escalating cross-Strait tensions, potentially leading to conflict within Taiwan and negative economic consequences for its residents.”
An op-ed in the Communist Party of China’s (CCP) Xinhua News Agency portrayed Lai’s inauguration speech as ‘revealing his true intentions’. It accused the president of spreading deceptive political falsehoods, promoting the myth of Taiwan’s independence, fueling cross-Strait confrontation, and advocating for dependence on foreign countries to seek independence and “pursuing independence through force”.
Weibo, the Chinese micro-blogging site, took measures to censor over 20 hashtags associated with Lai’s inauguration and limited discussions on the topic. Interestingly, sentiments expressed on the platform regarding Taiwan strongly oppose Lai, often resorting to aggressive language and spreading misinformation. It is worth mentioning that Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, made a reference to an unverified open letter supposedly written by a Taiwanese Air Force pilot on Weibo. This letter claimed that military personnel had low morale due to the perceived impossibility of Taiwan winning a war and accused Lai of exacerbating tensions with China.
