Nearly 500 missiles have been launched. Over 250 individuals have lost their lives, and numerous structures have been obliterated. The Israel-Iran conflict has now reached its seventh day, with no indications of a reduction in hostilities. The intensifying war prompts various inquiries — yet none are more pressing than — who is prevailing?
The long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has never truly been considered “cold”, escalated last Friday (June 13) when Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, a comprehensive aerial campaign aimed at nuclear and military installations deep within Iranian territory.
As of today, one week later (June 20), the hostilities persist, raising concerns that the United States may become involved — although clarity on this matter will only emerge in two weeks, following Donald Trump’s announcement of a new deadline for Tehran.
The pressing question being posed a week into the conflict is — who currently possesses the advantage? Has Iran exhausted its options in this confrontation?
Assessment of the damage inflicted by Israel and Iran
Evaluating the destruction of both military and civilian sites serves as one method to determine which side holds the advantage in this conflict. Both parties have inflicted considerable damage upon each other. Nevertheless, it appears that Israel has the upper hand — having inflicted substantial damage on Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military installations.
On Thursday, Israel targeted Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, one of the nation’s largest nuclear facilities, situated 250 kilometers southwest of Tehran. In addition to the Arak facility, Israel has also attacked Natanz — Iran’s primary uranium enrichment center. Initially, the UN nuclear watchdog reported that the strikes had only impacted the aboveground sections of the enrichment plant. However, it later updated its findings to confirm “direct impacts” on the underground enrichment halls.
Israel also targeted Iran’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Moreover, reports from various regional sources indicate that at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists have lost their lives since the onset of the attacks, with the Israeli military stating that nine of these individuals were a “key element” in Tehran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
However, the Fordow and Bushehr facilities have largely remained unscathed by Israel’s assaults.
Israel’s military operations have significantly impaired Iran’s missile capabilities. Multiple Israeli airstrikes have focused on a missile facility in Kermanshah, where satellite imagery captured on June 15 reveals damage to missile storage structures.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed Kan public broadcaster that at least fifty percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been neutralized. The Israel Defense Forces corroborated this statement, indicating that forty percent of Iran’s launchers have been destroyed.
Beyond military installations, Israel has also targeted Iran’s energy sector. Reports from Iran’s oil ministry indicate that the Jewish state has attacked Tehran’s primary gas depot and its central oil refinery. The ministry further noted that Israel has struck a portion of one of the largest gas fields globally. Social media footage displayed a significant fire raging at the Shahran oil depot, located north of Tehran.
Israeli jets also targeted the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster in Tehran, resulting in a temporary interruption of a live broadcast. The Israeli military stated that it aimed at a “communications center of the Iranian regime.”
In retaliation, Iran has also exacted its toll; it has targeted residential neighborhoods within Israel, devastated the Weizmann Institute of Science, often regarded as Israel’s ‘crown jewel of science’, and even attacked the Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. According to Iranian media, on Saturday, Iranian missiles struck just 300 meters (984 feet) from the Israeli Ministry of Defence headquarters (the Kirya) in Tel Aviv. Additionally, another assault targeted the Weizmann Institute of Science, a prominent research facility in Rehovot, south of Tel Aviv, which is reported to have collaborated with the Israeli military, rendering it a crucial target.
Several urban regions have also suffered damage due to Iranian missile strikes. In Ramat Gan, a city neighboring Tel Aviv, missiles impacted multiple towers and residential buildings, resulting in considerable destruction and necessitating evacuations. Local officials reported the destruction of nine structures.
The adjacent city of Petah Tikva also experienced missile attacks that affected both residential and commercial sectors, while in Bnei Brak, a religious educational institution was obliterated. Bat Yam, located south of Tel Aviv, has similarly experienced extensive damage.
In northern Israel, Iranian missiles targeted Haifa’s Bazan petrochemical facility, the largest oil refinery in the nation, leading to a halt in operations. Haifa endured a second missile attack, which struck several residential properties in the Neve Sha’anan neighborhood.
Additionally, on Thursday, Iran targeted a hospital in the Israeli city of Beersheba, compelling the staff at Soroka Medical Centre to relocate the majority of its patients to other medical facilities. The strike shattered windows, scattering glass throughout the hospital, caused ceilings to collapse, damaged medical apparatus, and left hallways in chaos.
“It’s incredibly tragic; I never imagined something like this could occur. Never. It’s just medical staff here, and patients… and look at what has happened to us,” stated Wasim Hin, an ophthalmologist at Soroka Medical Centre, in an interview with AFP. “We had new equipment; everything has been ruined.”
Casualties continue to rise.
On Thursday, the body of a Ukrainian woman was retrieved from a structure that had been hit by an Iranian missile four days prior, according to Israeli officials. Maria Peshkarova, 31, is the ninth casualty from the missile strike in Bat Yam on Sunday, bringing the total death toll in Israel to 25 since the onset of the conflict, as reported by authorities.
In the meantime, Iran announced on Sunday that Israeli airstrikes had resulted in the deaths of at least 224 individuals, including military leaders, nuclear scientists, and civilians. Authorities have not provided an updated casualty figure since then.
Iran has experienced the loss of several senior officials, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and Ali Shadmani, who served as Iran’s wartime Chief of Staff during Israel’s Operation Rising Lion. Notably, Shadmani was appointed to the chief of staff role following the death of Mohammad Bagheri on Friday.
In addition to Shadmani and Bagheri, Israel has also targeted and eliminated the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, the deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and Gholamali Rashid, the head of the IRGC’s Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, along with Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, among others.
Furthermore, Israel has issued threats against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, with Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, stating on Thursday that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “can no longer be allowed to exist.”
Israel has asserted control over Iranian airspace
Another area where Israel appears to have an advantage over Iran is in its declaration of aerial supremacy over Tehran. Four days into its aggressive air campaign, the Israeli military announced that it could now operate over the capital, Tehran, without encountering significant resistance, having severely compromised Iran’s air defenses in recent strikes. This development allows Israel to target a growing array of objectives with relative ease.
Military analysts suggest that such dominance over Iran’s airspace represents not only a tactical benefit but also a strategic inflection point. Air supremacy provides Israel with the capability to intensify its bombing operations, seek out further targets, and potentially redefine the rules of deterrence in a region where missile barrages and proxy conflicts have historically set the boundaries of warfare.
But how did Israel accomplish this goal? By utilizing US-supplied aircraft such as the F-15 and F-16, along with the customized F-35 stealth fighter jet. Additionally, Israel possesses the Iron Dome and Iron Shield systems, boasting an interception success rate exceeding 90 percent for short-range rockets and missiles.
However, there are reports indicating that Israel is exhausting its stock of long-range missile interceptors. According to a source cited by The Wall Street Journal, Israel can sustain its missile defense for an additional 10 to 12 days if Iran continues its consistent pace of attacks. The source remarked, “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to decide which missiles to intercept.”
Nevertheless, Iran could still alter the situation. While Israel is awaiting Donald Trump’s reaction regarding participation in the strikes, there remains hope for Iran. As Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Iranian security matters, stated to TIME, “Iran has proven to be significantly weaker than we had anticipated, yet it continues to endure.”
Interestingly, Iran’s proxies — which encompass Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Shiite militias — have not yet engaged in the conflict. On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem pledged “all forms of support” to Iran in its struggle against Israel and the United States, asserting that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and intended to benefit its populace.
In a speech delivered on Thursday night, Qassem declared, “It does not harm anyone in the slightest; rather, it signifies a substantial scientific contribution to the progress of Iran and the region, relying on its own capabilities without foreign oversight.”
He further accused the international community of opposing Iran not due to its nuclear program, but because it advocates for “faith, knowledge, and freedom” and supports “the oppressed.” Reaffirming Hezbollah’s solidarity with Tehran, Qassem called for backing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. “We urge all free individuals, the oppressed, resistance fighters, scholars, and those with sound judgment to raise their voices emphatically and demonstrate strength, courage, and support by uniting around the most noble and honorable leadership of Imam Khamenei,” he stated.
Furthermore, the Houthis based in Yemen have declared that they will intervene to assist Iran against Israel, similar to their previous support for the Palestinians in Gaza. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the political bureau of the Houthi movement, reiterated during an interview with Al Jazeera Mubasher TV that the group is collaborating with Tehran amid the current military escalation involving Israel.
In addition to Iran’s proxies, the country may also seek assistance from its international allies, specifically Russia and China, to exert pressure on Israel. Russia has already urged the United States to refrain from entering the conflict, warning that such an action would be “extremely dangerous” and could result in “unpredictable negative consequences.” The Kremlin has called for a ceasefire in the ongoing hostilities, advocating for diplomacy rather than force to resolve the violence.
China has similarly condemned Israel’s actions and has urged both parties to de-escalate the situation. A broader regional conflict would complicate China’s risk-to-benefit analysis, as it would jeopardize its economic interests in the region, particularly in terms of energy resources.
With contributions from various agencies.
