French President Emmanuel Macron has found himself in a significant political dilemma following the defeat of his appointed Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, in a no-confidence vote. The minority coalition led by the right-leaning prime minister was ousted merely three months after an alliance of left-wing parties, bolstered by members of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, initiated the motion.
On Wednesday, 331 members of the French National Assembly voted to dissolve the government. While Barnier may tender his resignation by Thursday, the President’s office has announced that Macron will address the nation via a televised speech today. This vote marks a historic moment, as it represents the first successful no-confidence motion in France since the government of Georges Pompidou was defeated in 1962 during Charles de Gaulle’s presidency. Furthermore, Barnier’s administration has now become the shortest in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which commenced in 1958. The removal of Barnier has plunged Macron into the most severe political crisis of his two presidential terms, as he strives to maintain his authority until 2027.
What led to this situation in France?
The ongoing crisis can be traced back to Macron’s risky decision to call for early legislative elections. The inconclusive results from the June elections resulted in a deeply fragmented parliament. Although a leftist coalition garnered the most votes, it did not achieve an absolute majority, while Macron’s centrist party experienced setbacks. Barnier, a former EU Brexit negotiator, was appointed by Macron in September after a period of political stagnation during the summer months.
One notable element of the polls was that, although the far-right National Rally party was largely excluded from government, its leader, Le Pen, emerged as a significant influencer in a highly fragmented political environment. It is important to highlight that in France, the president’s selection of a prime minister requires the approval of lawmakers. Nevertheless, Le Pen has asserted that her party would oppose any candidate from the left-wing coalition, despite that coalition securing the most seats in the July election.
While Barnier sought to appease the right, members of the left expressed dissatisfaction with his perceived alignment with right-wing interests. Socialist lawmaker Boris Vallaud accused Barnier of engaging in a “humiliating tête-à-tête” with the far-right. Given the current division within the French parliament, any candidate chosen by Macron will likely encounter similar challenges.
What are the next steps?
Similar to former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, Macron may request that Barnier’s government continue in a caretaker capacity until a suitable replacement can be identified, one who would not face immediate disapproval from a majority of lawmakers.
Navigating this divided parliament may prove to be a complex endeavor. While the caretaker government can manage ongoing affairs, it lacks the authority to vote on new legislation.
Although Macron does not have a specific timeline for appointing a new prime minister, he has indicated a desire to act promptly, ideally within the next 24 hours. He has also stated his intention to remain in office until the conclusion of his term in the spring of 2027. However, he can only call for the next parliamentary election in July. Until that time, the parliament is expected to remain polarized.
France is currently facing a challenging situation.
Why is another election not possible before July?
Even if Macron wished to initiate a new parliamentary election, he is unable to do so because he has already invoked the provision for a snap election in July. According to the French Constitution, having triggered a snap poll, Macron is precluded from calling for new elections before the next summer.
France is poised to experience political uncertainty until 2025. However, this situation could shift if President Macron decides to resign. Given that the presidency in France cannot remain unoccupied, any resignation from the current leader would necessitate a presidential election. Despite the mounting pressure, Macron has consistently expressed his intention to remain in office, dismissing the idea of resignation as “political fiction.” Nevertheless, factions on both the left and far right have called for his departure.
A pressing concern is the future of the national budget. Barnier’s primary responsibility, which ultimately contributed to his political decline, was to secure approval for the 2025 budget, which included commitments to reduce France’s deficit through €60 billion in tax hikes and spending reductions. Following a prolonged political impasse, the French leader managed to advance a social security financing bill by invoking Article 49.3 of the constitution, a provision that permits the government to enact legislation without parliamentary approval.
This action provoked significant backlash from lawmakers, leading to no-confidence motions initiated by both the left alliance and the far-right factions. Although Barnier’s minority coalition was initially supported by Le Pen, she later withdrew her backing, labeling the Prime Minister’s budget as a threat to the nation.
Compounding the situation is the potential consequence of failing to pass a budget by December 20. In such a case, the government could resort to its constitutional authority to enact the budget by ordinance, which could take effect after 50 days of stalemate, while the national budget could be implemented following 70 days of deliberation.
The government has the option to introduce emergency legislation that would extend the spending limits and tax provisions established for 2024. This measure would remain effective until a new government is formed and a new budget is established in 2025. Although France is not facing a government shutdown akin to that of the United States, it is still confronted with an impending financial crisis.
The financial crisis transcends political issues
The current situation in France is characterized more by financial distress than by political challenges. The nation is grappling with a significant budget deficit, exceeding 6 percent of its gross domestic product, which is well above the European Union’s guideline of 3 percent.
This increase in debt and deficit can be attributed to substantial spending aimed at safeguarding incomes during the pandemic, coupled with rising energy costs stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The economic difficulties are underscored by the fact that on Monday, French bond yields—the interest rates on government debt—surpassed those of Greece, which was once considered the euro zone’s most troubled economy and was central to the region-wide debt crisis following the 2008 global financial downturn. Consequently, it remains uncertain whether the budgetary framework for 2024 will be sufficient to avert a significant economic crisis.
Macron’s challenges with Prime Ministers
It is noteworthy that Barnier is the fifth individual to serve as French Prime Minister since Macron assumed office in 2017. Each successive prime minister has held the position for a progressively shorter duration, and given the current instability, the new appointee may face an even briefer tenure than Barnier.
Remarkably, the 73-year-old Barnier will become the oldest person to take on this role under the Fifth Republic, as well as the shortest-serving prime minister in the same period.
Since taking office, Macron has been navigating a fragmented parliament, where his popularity has been limited. This situation has resulted in him welcoming and bidding farewell to five prime ministers, including Édouard Philippe, Jean Castex, Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, and Barnier himself.
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron made history by becoming the youngest individual to assume the presidency of France. His initial choice for Prime Minister was Édouard Philippe, who held the position from 2017 until 2022. Following Philippe, Jean Castex took over the role in July 2022, remaining in office until the subsequent election. However, challenges for Macron began to emerge after the 2022 elections.
The 2022 elections were significant yet became a source of considerable difficulties for Macron. He was the first French presidential candidate to secure reelection since Jacques Chirac triumphed over Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002. Nevertheless, his centrist coalition lost its absolute majority that same year, leading to a hung parliament and the establishment of France’s first minority government since the Bérégovoy administration fell in 1993.
In response to the political turmoil, Macron appointed Elisabeth Borne to steer the government through the challenging parliamentary landscape, making her the second woman to serve as Prime Minister. Amidst ongoing political strife, Borne was succeeded by Gabriel Attal, who became the youngest head of government in French history and the first openly gay individual to occupy the position. However, the poor performance of his coalition in the European Union prompted snap elections, resulting in Michel Barnier taking charge. With Barnier’s departure, it remains to be seen how many more prime ministers Macron will need to appoint before 2027 and whether France will continue to experience this political impasse.
