Christophe Barraud, recognized as the ‘world’s most accurate economist,’ has forecasted a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 5. Barraud, the head of Market Securities Monaco and a leading figure in Bloomberg’s economic rankings for 11 of the last 12 years, supports his prediction through various indicators, including signals from financial markets and betting platforms. In a recent update on X (formerly Twitter), Barraud remarked, “Analyzing various metrics such as betting markets, polls, forecasts from election modellers, and financial market trends, the most likely outcomes indicate a GOP clean sweep.” His analysis implies that Republicans are likely to gain control of the Senate and potentially the House, although the latter remains less certain. Barraud anticipates that a Trump presidency would lead to short-term economic growth, projecting GDP increases between 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025. However, he cautions that tax reductions may be counterbalanced by long-term challenges, such as a rising federal deficit in the absence of new revenue streams. In the event of a Trump victory, the economist foresees significant fluctuations in the bond market, predicting that yields on the 10-year Treasury bond could escalate to 4.5 percent, possibly reaching as high as 5 percent as Trump’s policies are implemented. This outlook diverges from the prevailing consensus, which anticipates slower growth rates of 2.6 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025. Adding to the mix of predictions, statistician Nate Silver expresses a strong intuition that Trump will secure a win, estimating the probability at 53.1 percent. Conversely, historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate election predictions, asserts that Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious based on his ‘Keys to the White House’ model.

He also forecasted a brief period of economic growth, anticipating that GDP will rise by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025.

Christophe Barraud, recognized as the ‘world’s most accurate economist,’ has forecasted a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 5. Barraud, the head of Market Securities Monaco and a leading figure in Bloomberg’s economic rankings for 11 of the last 12 years, supports his prediction through various indicators, including signals from financial markets and betting platforms.

In a recent update on X (formerly Twitter), Barraud remarked, “Analyzing various metrics such as betting markets, polls, forecasts from election modellers, and financial market trends, the most likely outcomes indicate a GOP clean sweep.” His analysis implies that Republicans are likely to gain control of the Senate and potentially the House, although the latter remains less certain.

Barraud anticipates that a Trump presidency would lead to short-term economic growth, projecting GDP increases between 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025. However, he cautions that tax reductions may be counterbalanced by long-term challenges, such as a rising federal deficit in the absence of new revenue streams.

In the event of a Trump victory, the economist foresees significant fluctuations in the bond market, predicting that yields on the 10-year Treasury bond could escalate to 4.5 percent, possibly reaching as high as 5 percent as Trump’s policies are implemented. This outlook diverges from the prevailing consensus, which anticipates slower growth rates of 2.6 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025.

Adding to the mix of predictions, statistician Nate Silver expresses a strong intuition that Trump will secure a win, estimating the probability at 53.1 percent. Conversely, historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate election predictions, asserts that Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious based on his ‘Keys to the White House’ model.