If there is one country that has put India’s policy of multi-alignment and strategic autonomy to the test, it is Iran. For India, the need for regional stability in Iran has always been a priority, but it has often found itself caught in the complexities of American involvement.
Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian president, played a significant role in finding solutions to these challenges. However, his untimely death has further complicated the situation.
The tragic incident occurred on May 19, when Raisi, along with other officials, including the foreign minister, met with a fatal accident. Their helicopter crashed in a remote and foggy forest near the Iran-Azerbaijan border, making it difficult to locate and access the crash site. Sadly, no one survived the crash, and only debris remained.
While some may argue that the demise of the so-called ‘Butcher of Tehran’ was fitting, given his involvement in the execution of thousands of political prisoners, it has sparked a mix of public mourning and muted celebrations within Iran’s divided political landscape.
The memory of the 2022 brutal crackdown on protests following the death of Mahsa Amini is still fresh in the minds of many. Amini’s arrest for not adhering to the government’s strict dress code sparked widespread demonstrations led by courageous Iranian women who removed their hijabs and set them on fire in public. In response, the regime used lethal force against the protestors, resulting in the loss of more than 500 lives, according to some estimates.
Raisi, though not popular or efficient, spoke against such acts of chaos. However, he held limited power, as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, retains full control over the executive, judiciary, legislative branches, as well as national security and foreign affairs policies. The day-to-day administration is left to others.
Overall, Raisi’s death has added a new layer of complexity to India’s engagement with Iran, navigating the balance between its strategic imperatives and the regional stability it seeks.
The Iranian economy suffered a significant decline during Raisi’s three-year term. The Rial lost more than 30% of its value against major currencies since January, inflation rose to over 40%, and food prices skyrocketed, leading to widespread public dissatisfaction.
Farshad Momeni, an economist and university professor quoted in Iranian media, described the economic situation of the Iranian people as critical. He mentioned that 30% of the population is below the poverty line, while another 40% are on the brink of falling below it due to current wage determination methods.
Despite the challenging circumstances, the decision of the Narendra Modi government to declare a day of national mourning for Raisi’s passing has sparked some surprise. However, India cannot afford to prioritize moral activism in its foreign policy. Pragmatism dictates that India must nurture its civilizational and strategic ties with Iran, a crucial player in West Asia and India’s gateway to Central Asia. Raisi’s presidency fostered cordiality, stability, and new opportunities in the bilateral relationship, which is essential in the current complex geopolitical landscape.
Raisi’s death represents a setback for India, particularly in the context of the competition between China and India for influence in West Asia. It also prompts a reflection on the relationship in light of America’s Iran policy, which has often impacted India’s infrastructural and trade partnerships with Iran due to the unpredictability of US economic sanctions or the looming threat of them.
The recent Chabahar deal, signed shortly before Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian’s untimely deaths, exemplifies this challenge. Just after India announced a 10-year agreement with Iran to develop and operate the Shahid Behesti terminal at Chabahar, the US issued a new warning of potential sanctions.
The spokesperson of the US State Department issued a warning regarding the deal between Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) and Port & Maritime Organisation of Iran. The warning stated that any entity or individual engaging in business deals with Iran could potentially face sanctions. However, India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, expressed a different perspective.
He mentioned that the project would have positive regional benefits and urged the US to consider a broader viewpoint. Minister Jaishankar’s statement holds weight as the Chabahar port project has been a long-standing interest for India. It highlights the instances where India’s strategic interests have been overshadowed by American priorities in their partnership.
The significance of the Chabahar port project is evident through India’s actions. Union Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal was dispatched to Tehran to oversee the signing of the agreement, showcasing its importance. The Chabahar port provides India with access to landlocked Afghanistan and resource-rich central Asia, bypassing Pakistan and its ports in Karachi and Gwadar. This gives India an advantage over China while also serving as a transit hub for Eurasian trade routes. The port project also brings Iran into the realm of economic activity that it has previously missed out on, amidst the transforming geopolitics and geoeconomics of West Asia.
India has played a significant role in the region’s transformation, which was initiated by the Abraham Accords between Israel, Bahrain, and the UAE. It has become clear to key actors in the region that they cannot afford to be excluded from the economic integration being driven by India and China to connect the Eurasian landmass and stimulate economic growth.
The introduction of the IMEC connectivity project, the formation of I2U2 (India, Israel, the UAE, and the US), the Abraham Accords, and the potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have all brought the major players in West Asia closer together under the guidance of the US. With India playing a crucial role, these developments aim to establish a transregional order referred to as the ‘Indo-Abrahamic Accord’ by Egyptian scholar Mohammed Soliman.
However, Iran perceives itself as being excluded from these advancements and views India with suspicion for potentially leaving them behind. This sets the stage for the Chabahar deal, which can be seen as India’s way of signaling to Iran that it is not being sidelined. The timing of this deal is opportune, taking advantage of the recent turmoil in the region following the Israel-Hamas war, which has caused delays in the implementation of connectivity projects like the IMEC.
India has a lot at stake in the Chabahar deal. Despite facing obstacles such as American sanctions and pressure from Washington to sever ties with Tehran, New Delhi has persistently pursued this project, highlighting its importance and commitment.
